juco

Member
Earthquake forecast
It will be interesting to see if this forecast transpires...


Turkey 'Western Region'
within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
Size M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 10+/-3 days
 

juco

Member
Earthquake forecast
It won't be "interesting" for the victims!

Unfortunately it would be, interesting refers to holding ones attention or creating emotion as a result of. Not something good or bad.

The point is that some earthquakes are apparently predictable within a certain timescale and show I think its around 80% accuracy. The last Italian earthquake was forecast in advance and ignored by the Italian authorities.
 

juco

Member
Earthquake forecast
It will be interesting to see if this forecast transpires...


Turkey 'Western Region'
within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
Size M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 10+/-3 days

Claimed...
M4.4
Accuracy 92%
7th November 2009
Lat 36.04 Lon 31.80
61 km S of Alanya,
Western Turkey
(EMSC source)
forecast 7 days ahead


On Bogazici site....
07.11.2009 22.22:03 36.691N 29.623E 13.5 3.3 SEKI-FETHIYE (MUGLA)
07.11.2009 12.15:47 40.716N 33.011E 5.0 3.1 ATKARACALAR (CANKIRI)
07.11.2009 05.13:41 36.064N 31.832E 83.0 4.4 AKDENIZ
 

Yalides

Am I pretty ?
Earthquake forecast
Better go get drunk then I suppose. Might be the last time.
Better check the earthquake insurance too.
We are doomed.....
 

juco

Member
Earthquake forecast
Exactly where will this earthquake be then?

As detailed below it, it occurred on th 7th at 05.13
And confirmed on the bogazici university site.
 

KKOB

Completely Chillaxed
Earthquake forecast
You posted the "so-called" forecast after the event !

Can you forecast yesterday's lottery numbers too please ! :lol:
 

jolo

Member
Earthquake forecast
There was an under sea earthquake off the coast of Greece on wednesday guess that's as close as you really want it to get. It was reported on the early morning BBC news but not on the news later in the day. Hope that's as close as it gets
 

Tommie

Sun Worshipper
Earthquake forecast
Check for yourself....

I may have posted unkowingly after the event but the site below forecasts a month ahead on their long term forecasts.

Earthquake predictions, Turkey region
Hi

Had a look at that site, and only found the previous predictions with actual results.

The latest one I could find was

No 8.

PREDICTED M3.8 Expected Date/Location
Original prediction 6th August 9th August +/-3 days (UTC) 2009
Predicted at 2300 hrs UTC (time window open until 16th August)
Probability of event >90% within ≈350 km of Usak
Magnitude Range M2.8-M4.8 Western Turkey

Usak is approx 600 km from Altinkum, which is uncomfortably close.

Not sure where you got the date for November 10th from.

Thanks

Tommie
 

abla

Member
Earthquake forecast
I found this very interesting and thank you for posting.As you say it happened as forcast.
 

juco

Member
Earthquake forecast
Here is the next prediction.....

Lat 38.68 Long 29.40
Expected 27th Nov. +/- 3 days
Size M3-M5
 

juco

Member
Earthquake forecast
KKOB Re: Earthquake forecast
You posted the "so-called" forecast after the event !
Can you forecast yesterday's lottery numbers too please !

:happy::happy::happy:

Forecast as in previous post......
Turkey
'Western Region'
Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
M3.0-M5.0
expected about Nov 27+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)

Actual.....
M4.5
25th November 2009
Lat 37.924 Lon 28.960
20 km NNW of Denizli, Turkey (USGS siource)
 

abla

Member
Earthquake forecast
Yes juco.Those predictions really are good.Amazing and quite a big one as it was only 3.4 km deep.Must have been scary but we didnt see anything on the news about it.Odd!
 

juco

Member
Earthquake forecast
Next forecast for 10th December...

Turkey
'Western Region'
Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
M3.0-M5.0
expected about Dec 10+/-3 days (Posted 20th Nov)

Actual
4th December 2009
Lat 37.915 Lon 28.727
35 km WNW of Denizli, Western Turkey
(USGS source)
forecast 14 days ahead
 
Last edited:

Ms Who

aka Kym Ciftci
Earthquake forecast
Pretty sure there was one at around 8am this morning - Sofa juddered, christmas balls left swaying!
 

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