Earthquake forecast

[juco]

It will be interesting to see if this forecast transpires...


Turkey 'Western Region'
within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
Size M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 10+/-3 days

 

[gren]

It won't be "interesting" for the victims!

 

[ChrisBobs]

Where (on earth...) did you get that forecast???

 

[juco]

It won't be "interesting" for the victims!

Unfortunately it would be, interesting refers to holding ones attention or creating emotion as a result of. Not something good or bad.

The point is that some earthquakes are apparently predictable within a certain timescale and show I think its around 80% accuracy. The last Italian earthquake was forecast in advance and ignored by the Italian authorities.

 

[juco]

It will be interesting to see if this forecast transpires...


Turkey 'Western Region'
within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
Size M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 10+/-3 days

Claimed...
M4.4
Accuracy 92%
7th November 2009
Lat 36.04 Lon 31.80
61 km S of Alanya,
Western Turkey
(EMSC source)
forecast 7 days ahead

On Bogazici site....
07.11.2009 22.22:03 36.691N 29.623E 13.5 3.3 SEKI-FETHIYE (MUGLA)
07.11.2009 12.15:47 40.716N 33.011E 5.0 3.1 ATKARACALAR (CANKIRI)
07.11.2009 05.13:41 36.064N 31.832E 83.0 4.4 AKDENIZ

 

[paddington bear]

Exactly where will this earthquake be then?


Sue

 

[Yalides]

Better go get drunk then I suppose. Might be the last time.
Better check the earthquake insurance too.
We are doomed.....

 

[juco]

Exactly where will this earthquake be then?

As detailed below it, it occurred on th 7th at 05.13
And confirmed on the bogazici university site.

 

[KKOB]

You posted the "so-called" forecast after the event !

Can you forecast yesterday's lottery numbers too please ! :lol:

 

[juco]

Check for yourself....

I may have posted unkowingly after the event but the site below forecasts a month ahead on their long term forecasts.

Earthquake predictions, Turkey region

 

[jolo]

There was an under sea earthquake off the coast of Greece on wednesday guess that's as close as you really want it to get. It was reported on the early morning BBC news but not on the news later in the day. Hope that's as close as it gets

 

[Akasya]

London, England, it might rain.

Steve.

 

[Tommie]

Check for yourself....

I may have posted unkowingly after the event but the site below forecasts a month ahead on their long term forecasts.

Earthquake predictions, Turkey region

Hi

Had a look at that site, and only found the previous predictions with actual results.

The latest one I could find was

No 8.

PREDICTED M3.8 Expected Date/Location
Original prediction 6th August 9th August +/-3 days (UTC) 2009
Predicted at 2300 hrs UTC (time window open until 16th August)
Probability of event >90% within ≈350 km of Usak
Magnitude Range M2.8-M4.8 Western Turkey

Usak is approx 600 km from Altinkum, which is uncomfortably close.

Not sure where you got the date for November 10th from.

Thanks

Tommie

 

[juco]

Tommy,

you need to go to the `long term forecasts` link on the page. The page you are looking at is the previous forecasts and the results.

I think they put the next months out after the 16th. But it might appear in the long term forecast page.

Try this link...
Earthquake predictions, long term forecasts

 

[abla]

I found this very interesting and thank you for posting.As you say it happened as forcast.

 

[juco]

Here is the next prediction.....

Lat 38.68 Long 29.40
Expected 27th Nov. +/- 3 days
Size M3-M5

 

[juco]

KKOB Re: Earthquake forecast
You posted the "so-called" forecast after the event !
Can you forecast yesterday's lottery numbers too please !

:happy::happy::happy:

Forecast as in previous post......
Turkey
'Western Region'
Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
M3.0-M5.0
expected about Nov 27+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)

Actual.....
M4.5
25th November 2009
Lat 37.924 Lon 28.960
20 km NNW of Denizli, Turkey (USGS siource)

 

[abla]

Yes juco.Those predictions really are good.Amazing and quite a big one as it was only 3.4 km deep.Must have been scary but we didnt see anything on the news about it.Odd!

 

[juco]

Next forecast for 10th December...

Turkey
'Western Region'
Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
M3.0-M5.0
expected about Dec 10+/-3 days (Posted 20th Nov)

Actual
4th December 2009
Lat 37.915 Lon 28.727
35 km WNW of Denizli, Western Turkey
(USGS source)
forecast 14 days ahead

 

[Ms Who]

Pretty sure there was one at around 8am this morning - Sofa juddered, christmas balls left swaying!