suzyq

Member
AKP’s ‘spell reversing’
A Turkish columnist close to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP or AK Parti) administration has warned the party amid the ongoing “infighting” between the government and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, saying the “spell” of stability the party had held is being reversed.

The AKP “has a spell,” daily Yeni Şafak columnist Abdülkadir Selvi warned on March 23. “Masses preferred the AK Parti because it was the symbol of stability. Now this spell is being reversed,” he said.

Selvi is regarded as one of the writers close to government figures, as well as Erdoğan, in Turkey’s staunchly pro-government media.

His comment, which has been considered “unusual” by many observers as seen on Turkish social media on March 23, came as Turkey’s Kurdish peace process had led to a rift between the government and Erdoğan.

On March 20, Erdoğan had objected to the formation of an “independent” group to monitor the peace process, which was previously agreed upon by the government and Turkey’s Kurdish problem-focused Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).

Hours after Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which shares a similar supporter base with the HDP, called on the PKK to convene a congress to lay down arms, Erdoğan slammed the government once again on March 21.

In response to Erdoğan, who said it was wrong for the government and party members to take a picture together with members of the HDP, government spokesperson and Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç told March 22 that the government “loves the president” but has its own “responsibilities.”

Öcalan’s ‘edited’ words

Quoting unnamed sources, Selvi wrote March 23 that the original message of Öcalan had two important additions, which were both removed during talks with the PKK’s leaders in Iraq’s Kandil Mountains. The government approved the edited message.

According to Selvi, Öcalan was setting a specific date for the PKK congress, April 15, several weeks before the general elections scheduled for June 7.

Moreover, he was referring to the “common history” of Turks and Kurds with a more specific reference to Süleyman Shah, an Ottoman or Seljuk warrior.

Facing the threat posed by Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militants, Süleyman Şah’s historic tomb was recently moved inside Syria by the Turkish army, reportedly with the cooperation of the Syrian Kurdish forces.

Erdoğan “sees some of these steps as attempts from Öcalan to legitimize himself,” leading to the current “split in opinion” between the Turkish president and the government, which he blames for “transforming the process into a negotiation between equals.”

Unprecedented ‘infighting’

Analysts say Erdoğan might be worried the AKP, which he left behind as he ascended to the seat of the presidency, will enter the upcoming elections by losing the nationalist Turkish votes due to the negative perceptions related to the Kurdish peace bid.

It would make it almost impossible for the AKP to get 400 seats in the parliament after the elections, which Erdoğan had set as a target to change the constitution and switch Turkey’s parliamentarian system into a presidential one.

Selvi described the current tension between Erdoğan and the government as a “serious situation.”

“Since it was established on Aug. 14, 2001, the AK Parti had never experienced the kind of infighting that it has been doing in the past three months,” he said.

March/23/2015

AKP?s ?spell reversing,? pro-gov?t columnist claims - POLITICS

Ankara Mayor call for Arınç to resign

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/an...ent-.aspx?pageID=517&nID=80057&NewsCatID=338D
 
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bal canavar

“Je suis l'humanité.”
AKP’s ‘spell reversing’
Be careful of Erdogan he is a Wily old fox and this could be a good cop bad cop routine used before, by Gul & Erdogan in the past.

Which actually suited their ultimate aims ,by supposedly taking different views .

There are two parts to the AKP electorate .

The nationalist part of AK and who aren't happy with this Kurdish peace plan.

Plus the Kurdish and Liberal part of the AK electorate who pick the AK over HDP because they are more religious and prefer the Islamic rather than the left wing politics of the HDP .

Erdogan needs both parts of this electorate for any chance of him to get his presidency/dictator law passed ,also his new Islamic Constitution .

So by him appealing to the conservative nationalist electorate and his Party taking the side of the liberal and Kurdish electorate in doing so they might not lose as much of the vote if they had just championed one side .

that is my take which could be wrong but knowing Erdogan's style he is clever (in a bad way) .
I hope I am wrong and there is real discontent amongst the AKP ranks only time will tell .

My biggest concern is ,is there some secret deal between Erdogan and parts of the HDP ,I don't mean Demirtas as he seems to be a honest person (as politicians can be ) and has said all the right words in speeches ,but he is overpowered and overruled by a presence bigger than him in the Kurdish community OCALAN .
Who has been in direct talks with Erdogan through his MIT chief Fidan these talks an what has been said or agreed isn't known to the public yet .

As I said before Erdogan needs seats or a coalition to get what he needs .

Demirtas has ruled out this coalition (so lets hope he isn't overruled or been agreed in the Ocalan talks )
Demirtas has made a dangerous and risky descion over the threshold barrage putting all chips on this . We have to think which part of the HDP advised him, because this is the scenario
The HDP’s success or failure at passing the election threshold will have a crucial effect. In case the party passes the 10% threshold they will obtain at least 55 deputys in the Parliament. If it fails, nearly all of the 35 seats they presently hold will be transferred to the AKP.

These seats would be crucial for Erdogan for his plans if he was to cobble together deals and give favours to get what he wants .

This is all conjecture and just a theory time will tell.:speaknoev
 

teosgirl

Member
AKP’s ‘spell reversing’
Exactly what I was thinking.
Same tactic they've used before.
I totally agree with the first part of your post (except this time someone forgot to tell Mr Gokcek :) ).

However, Demirtas seems quite cavalier. I'm not sure I trust him and it wouldn't be the first time a politician has been caught doing secret deals behind closed doors. It could be that the two party's (HDP and AKP) are playing a very crafty game. Nothing in Turkish politics surprises me any more, and my cynicism was recently awakened by the fact that many Turks have recently voiced support for the HDP. Perhaps he's using a serge in popularity as an excuse to go to the elections under the HDP party umbrella knowing they will lose and their seats will go to the AKP - as independents they could/would hold their places. I hope I'm wrong and I hope they overcome the 10% threshold.



Charlotte
 

bal canavar

“Je suis l'humanité.”
AKP’s ‘spell reversing’
Have always thought Melih Gokcek was a loose cannon, a tweet before you think type of guy ,and has made so many gaffs in the past .

I Think the AKP is riddled with paranoia of enemies within and international conspiracy's from the outside. Fueled by their treatment of their former partner the Hizmet and the revenge it will/or take . It would be good if the case to see them implode ,as we are now at the last chance saloon for Turkish Democracy .

If Erdogan gets his Islamic Constitution and his super style Presidency/dictatorship I know a lot of educated Turks young/old who if they have the opportunity to leave will leave, and others will look for ways to leave .

It will be like what happened in Iran, when most of the liberal educated people that had chance took it and left .

The European Commission launched a visa liberalization dialogue with Turkey on December 16, 2013, setting out a list divided into five chapters of what Turkey must achieve to enable Turkish citizens to travel to the EU without a visa.
The agreement will enter into effect on December 16, 2016.


Charlotte you asked why HDP ? and I answer as a personal thought and opinion why this may be the case .

I think a lot of Turks have taken to the HDP because Demirtas gives hope to young left wing Turks/Kurds alike ( If a separation can be made away from old PKK thinking and partisan Kurdish only policies ) of a party with grassroots support with ideals closer to the European way of thinking and standards. Which recently the older left wing parties have not led the way on, but fallen back on the old default positions of before and offer nothing new .

PS it would be nice lauraB ,suzyQ an Tosmur as I know you take a keen interest to hear your opinions as they would be valued and I am sure worth hearing. Or anyone with a view
 
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teosgirl

Member
AKP’s ‘spell reversing’
I think you're correct in your explanation of why Turks are leaning towards (or at least curious about) the HDP policies, and left wing politics are certainly popular among the young. I also find myself listening to Demirtas and nodding in agreement on occasion, maybe I'm just too paranoid to trust any political leader right now. I hope he's being honest and I hope they win enough votes to beat the 10% threshold - the alternative doesn't bare thinking about.


Charlotte
 

bal canavar

“Je suis l'humanité.”
AKP’s ‘spell reversing’
Exactly what I was thinking.
Same tactic they've used before.
I totally agree with the first part of your post (except this time someone forgot to tell Mr Gokcek :) ).

However, Demirtas seems quite cavalier. I'm not sure I trust him and it wouldn't be the first time a politician has been caught doing secret deals behind closed doors. It could be that the two party's (HDP and AKP) are playing a very crafty game. Nothing in Turkish politics surprises me any more, and my cynicism was recently awakened by the fact that many Turks have recently voiced support for the HDP. Perhaps he's using a serge in popularity as an excuse to go to the elections under the HDP party umbrella knowing they will lose and their seats will go to the AKP - as independents they could/would hold their places. I hope I'm wrong and I hope they overcome the 10% threshold.

Charlotte

It looks like a few people are not swallowing the AKP Erdogan crisis line this article by SEMİH İDİZ in todays TDN seems to confirm some of our thoughts

What is Erdoğan trying to do?

What is Erdo?an trying to do? - SEM?H ?D?Z
 

bal canavar

“Je suis l'humanité.”
AKP’s ‘spell reversing’
I thought this would be important and interesting piece to see what the Kurdish population is thinking . But find it concerning that they may be finding it difficult in their dealings with he wily RTE in such an important election and the tactics needed to foil the plans of the Super presidency and the Islamic constitution .



How the Kurds’ Power Play Backfired in Turkey
Posted on March 28, 2015 by KDN
By Aliza Marcus and Halil Karaveli

Imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan’s recent calls for the Kurdish militants to end the armed struggle inside Turkey seemed designed to show that they were on the brink of a peace deal. It didn’t work. The likelihood of a formal peace settlement has never been worse, and for now this may suit both the PKK and the Turkish government.

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, gambled that Ocalan’s announcement, first delivered by members of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) in a televised meeting with senior government officials, would give his party a boost before June national elections. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been negotiating with Ocalan since a ceasefire took hold in 2013 and has little to show for it. Turkish soldiers, who have been withdrawn to fortified bases outside city centers in the country’s Kurdish southeast, no longer carry out military operations, giving the PKK de facto control over the region.

Erdogan used to talk about striking a deal with the Kurds to give them broader rights. No longer. The government hasn’t shown any signs that it plans to meet any of the Kurds main demands, including constitutional changes to give Kurds ethnic-based rights and devolution of power to allow some self-rule. Instead, Erdogan is focused on avoiding concessions while extracting promises that the PKK will disarm and disband. “What Kurdish problem?” Erdogan said two weeks after the February 28 press conference. “There isn’t one anymore.”

Ocalan’s message to the PKK—read out again on March 21, during Kurdish new-year celebrations in Diyarbakir, the de facto capital of Turkey’s Kurdish region—seemed to prove Erdogan right. He didn’t have to give the Kurds much of anything to get Ocalan to call off the PKK. Erdogan hopes voters on the right get this message and back him in the June elections, rather than the traditional ultranationalist Nationalist Action Party (MHP), which is on the rise in polls.

The pro-Kurdish legal political party also seemed to think that Ocalan’s statement, in which he told the PKK to hold a special congress to formally end the war, would improve their party’s image in the run up to the polls. But they had a very different calculus than Erdogan. HDP needs a minimum of 10 percent of the national vote to make it into parliament. Kurdish votes alone aren’t enough and the party’s been trying to refashion itself as the new, liberal alternative for Turks and Kurds. Ocalan’s message appeared to fit into the party’s push to show that it’s a vehicle for peace and that it wants liberties for everyone, not just for Kurds.

The Kurdish party miscalculated. The image of the Kurdish officials standing next to Erdogan’s senior people didn’t play well among Turkish liberals and leftists, the very people HDP needs votes from to get into parliament. After all, Erdogan has long since ceased to be a democratic hope. He’s abandoned plans to reform the constitution to strengthen democracy and civil liberties, and he’s been pushing for a controversial security bill that would further limit rights. He’s made clear the only political changes he wants are those that would strengthen the presidency, without any checks and balances. Turkey’s liberals and leftist activists will hesitate to vote for to a party that looks like it’s cozying up to Erdogan.

Kurdish politicians also have been battling rumors that they struck a secret deal with Erdogan and the announcement only added to suspicions. According to one rumor, Kurdish deputies in parliament will support Erdogan’s anti-democratic measures in exchange for Ocalan’s release to house arrest. Another, more-complicated rumor has the Kurds entering the elections knowing they are unlikely to get the minimum 10 percent needed. Under Turkey’s electoral law, without 10 percent, any seats the Kurds do win on a regional basis pass to the next party, most likely the AKP. This would almost certainly guarantee AKP the super two-thirds majority it needs to do whatever Erdogan wants.

The Kurdish party’s co-chairman, Selahattin Demirtas, has repeatedly stated that there’s no deal, secret or otherwise. He realized quickly that he needed to contain the damage from the joint statement by Kurds and the Turkish government, which helped feed the rumors. That’s why on March 17, he said his party would never help Erdogan realize his ambitions for presidential rule, even as Demirtas restated Kurdish commitment to making peace with Turkey.

But the Kurdish rebels, whose military leadership is based in the Kandil mountains in northern Iraq, aren’t in any rush to make any deal. Since Ocalan and the Turkish state agreed to a ceasefire two years ago, the PKK has grown more powerful: the pro-PKK Kurdish political party runs most municipalities in Turkey’s Kurdish southeast; armed rebels meet supporters and run civilian teams from mobile bases; pro-PKK activists in the de facto Kurdish capital Diyarbakir are putting into place a local parliament and other trappings of a Kurdish state.

The PKK’s image and legitimacy have also gotten a huge boost in the past two years because of the PKK’s fight against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria. PKK militants and fighters from the allied Syrian Kurdish PYD party have emerged as a key Western ally in the fight against the violent extremists from the so-called Islamic State.

It’s clear that the Kurdish rebels aren’t planning on blindly following the leader. There’s no split between the PKK and Ocalan, but it’s been years since Ocalan was able to dictate to the rebels as he did when he ran the group from its headquarters in Damascus, before his capture in 1999. Cemil Bayik, who has been with Ocalan since the PKK was founded in 1978, responded to Ocalan’s message by saying the PKK needed to see political changes on the ground. “For the armed struggle to end, there are certain steps the Turkish state and government must take.”

The PKK’s response to Ocalan’s call puts Erdogan on notice that he can’t exert his will over the Kurds the same way he’s done over the rest of the country. The rebels won’t honor demands that require the PKK to disband itself without an agreement that gives Kurds basic rights, such as mother-tongue education, protects democracy for all citizens and establishes a framework for Kurdish self rule. That is a far cry from Erdogan’s vision for Turkey, which sees power increasingly concentrated in his hands while shrinking the space for dissent and debate. Serious peace negotiations would only threaten Erdogan’s political goals.

A democratic constitution that grants Kurds some form of self-rule is not in the offing. Erdogan is showing no signs of being ready to accept a liberal environment in which everyone, Kurd or Turk, is free to debate and criticize. Last week, Erdogan lashed out at the government for allowing the Kurdish party to read out a 10-point list of democratic demands on television after Ocalan’s initial declaration. He warned that giving in to Kurdish demands for a commission to monitor the peace process would be a “disaster.” He said it designed to bestow legitimacy on Ocalan, making it a “dangerous step.”

His intolerance for dissent has no limits. He recently lambasted the head of the central bank for not lowering the interest rates, and he hectors cabinet ministers, which he has no right to do according to the constitution.

The Kurdish movement in Turkey has a historic choice to make: it can choose to be either a force that helps save Turkish democracy by checking Erdogan’s power or a force that seconds Erdogan’s power grab. So far, the party’s political miscalculations—including delivering the message from Ocalan without forcefully demanding Turkish reforms in return—have only reinforced Erdogan’s claims that he doesn’t need to do anything to end the conflict and made it seem as if the Kurds are doing Erdogan’s bidding. What was billed as a historic message turned out to be more useful for Erdogan than for the Kurds.

HDP’s attempt to refashion itself as the new, broad liberal force for Turks and Kurds is faltering, endangering the party’s chance of getting enough votes to enter parliament. If HDP doesn’t make it to parliament in the general election in June, there will be little to stand in the way of Turkey becoming fully authoritarian. And with no Kurdish representation in the parliament in Ankara, Kurds will plan their own future, without Turkey.
 
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