Mushroom

Member
2021 Holiday Plans
I think at that rate, autumn is going to as good as it gets. I don't expect direct flights until then, with the additional problem that is will there be sufficient demand at that time to actually operate flights? From the flight operator's perspective, if spring and summer trade has been nil to Turkey, is it actually worthwhile to resume in Autumn or bin the idea entirely for this year?
Furlough ends at the end of September and my next door neighbour pilot has been on her paid holiday for over a year already.
I think there are more redundancies ahead in that industry.
 

enoch

Member
2021 Holiday Plans
The roll out rate has become pitifully slow
On top of that one Turkish govt source said their guesstimate of where they would need to be in daily cases to qualify for for UK green list is under 10K

Not a chance this side of August imho

Yesterday the Turks said if they dont have the numbers below 50K by June they will need stricter measures. That sort of shows you how pessimistic they actually are re getting these numbers down
I think there's going to be a lockdown in a couple of weeks.
 

Mushroom

Member
2021 Holiday Plans
After watching the phenomenal delays for those arriving back in the UK to Heathrow and this procedure of checking everyone's paperwork with insufficient Border control people, and taking about 40 minutes per person which added to the numbers which are very low in the usual Heathrow volumes but can lead to it taking several hours for people to 'escape' from the airport, I can't help wondering if somewhere behind the scenes this is a way of trying to put us off going abroad because we will be aware of the delays we are to encounter when we arrive back?
Or is it just me being cynical ?
Either way, I aren't renewing my passport just now.
 

Kanga

Member
2021 Holiday Plans
I feel sorry for the Border Force staff who have to put up with exposure to infection, rudeness, ignorant remarks, and a sodding awful system to work in. They have to stand there for a whole shift without a break, and handle people's papers, with unknown germs and dirt on them.
I think you are just being too negative and cynical on this, Mush.
 

Mushroom

Member
2021 Holiday Plans
I think that time will tell but as Heathrow is only seeing a fraction of through traffic and the border force have their hands tied already, where would we find an increase of border force personnel who could deal any better if the volume of travellers increased?
 

yalimart

The Carnwath Massive
2021 Holiday Plans
It took Easyjet from 15th to 17th April to refund our flights, so credit where credits due, or is it refund where refunds due.

Today the planning starts for next years trip.
 

Saoirse

Moderator
2021 Holiday Plans
I would have bet my house this time last year that holidays this year would have been going ahead
2021 is dead in the water and 2022 isn't looking like a definite banker yet
 
2021 Holiday Plans
Is Turkey following our model of two jabs and a gap of about 12 weeks between them or are they doing something else?
To calculate when you would be classed as having the optimum level of effectiveness in the UK it is about 3 weeks after the second jab.
It has already been declared that the vaccines are 'slightly' less effective against the new variants, whatever 'slightly' means.
I hate the expression of a risk assessment but this will be the case of the government before travel abroad is allowed, then the airports and airlines have to manage the risk.
I wouldn't be reassured by any country tendering for our dosh, especially the Spanish.
I'm still optimistic about a revisit in Autumn but not much sooner.
Turkey is following the recommended model for vaccinations and giving the second shot 4 weeks after the first. At the moment about 12 million adults in Turkey have had both shots and around another 8 million have only had the first one. As far as I can work out between 200,000 and 300,000 shots are being administered every day.
 

Saoirse

Moderator
2021 Holiday Plans
I believe it's the other way around 12 first shot 8mill both shots

The speed of vaccinations in Turkey is woefully inadequate

At current rate it could easily be well into next year before they reach their target of 50m fully vaccinated
 

enoch

Member
2021 Holiday Plans
I believe it's the other way around 12 first shot 8mill both shots

The speed of vaccinations in Turkey is woefully inadequate

At current rate it could easily be well into next year before they reach their target of 50m fully vaccinated
Totally inadequate I've got to agree.
 

enoch

Member
2021 Holiday Plans
I believe it's the other way around 12 first shot 8mill both shots

The speed of vaccinations in Turkey is woefully inadequate

At current rate it could easily be well into next year before they reach their target of 50m fully vaccinated
Some are saying now 60 million would be better for herd, but how many times will this thing change the pace they are vaccinating?
 

Saoirse

Moderator
2021 Holiday Plans
Well to get 60mill fully vaccinated requires over another 50mill getting 2 jabs= 100mil jabs

Currently Turkey is stretched to deliver 2mill jabs a week so its gonna be a long time to reach that target

Meanwhile they are already making noises about further lockdown measures in June- that tells me :
1 they have given up on a tourism season
2 they dont reckon this Ramadan lockdown will be sufficient
 

enoch

Member
2021 Holiday Plans
Well to get 60mill fully vaccinated requires over another 50mill getting 2 jabs= 100mil jabs

Currently Turkey is stretched to deliver 2mill jabs a week so its gonna be a long time to reach that target

Meanwhile they are already making noises about further lockdown measures in June- that tells me :
1 they have given up on a tourism season
2 they dont reckon this Ramadan lockdown will be sufficient
It's my chemist, said he knows of 35 family's that went to hospital in one day
That’s just in Alanya .
They took our neighbours from over the road 2 days ago that never go out in pvc to the hospital. But no one is saying why.
 
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Camden

Member
2021 Holiday Plans

Empty middle airplane seats would cut coronavirus exposure

Keeping middle airplane seats vacant could cut the risk of exposure to the coronavirus by 23% to 57% compared with a full flight, according to a simulation study on physical distancing onboard released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

 

Kanga

Member
2021 Holiday Plans

Empty middle airplane seats would cut coronavirus exposure

Keeping middle airplane seats vacant could cut the risk of exposure to the coronavirus by 23% to 57% compared with a full flight, according to a simulation study on physical distancing onboard released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

I would imagine it also cuts the operating margin by at least the same amount. Here in UK there's a row about the cost of compulsory tests before flying, at £120 per test a family of 4 is going to be priced out. The travel business is on its knees already and even if the cost is halved it's a pinch.
 

Mushroom

Member
2021 Holiday Plans
Even by my maths, if you cut 1/3 of the seats you cut 1/3 of the income, unless you factor in a fare increase to cover it for the remaining 2/3?
No thanks.
 

35pluschips

Member
Top Poster Of Month
2021 Holiday Plans
I think most people will be looking to holiday where the infection rates are going down, not up. Maybe that's just me with my twisted logic thinking.
 

Kanga

Member
2021 Holiday Plans
Russia's tourism sector, hit by Kremlin’s decision to halt charter flights to Turkey, is keenly awaiting the resumption of travel to and from Turkey by June 1.
Moscow has said it was suspending most air travel with Turkey, a popular destination for millions of Russian tourists, citing rising coronavirus infections in a move that comes amid growing political tensions over Ankara’s support for Ukraine.
Most charter and regular flights to and from Turkey will be restricted from April 15 to June 1, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova said Monday.
Yet, two flights per week will continue between Moscow and Istanbul, Golikova told a televised briefing.
Yuri Barzykin, vice president of the Russian Union of Travel Industry, said Russian companies stand to lose around 5 billion rubles ($65 million) due to the air traffic halt.
"We hope to be compensated for these losses. We also expect the government to initiate a subsidy program for airlines and tour operators," he told Russian news agency TASS.
Flights to take home Russian nationals working on the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project in Turkey's southern province of Mersin will also continue, she told a news conference on Monday.
Around 530,000 Russians had booked tours to Turkey, according to the Russian Association of Tour Operators (ATOR), which said the tourism industry could take a hit of more than $422 million from the canceled flight bookings alone.
The decision to drastically cut the number of flights to Turkey, which is heavily reliant on revenue from tourism, was announced two days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Istanbul.


 

Camden

Member
2021 Holiday Plans

Empty middle airplane seats would cut coronavirus exposure

Keeping middle airplane seats vacant could cut the risk of exposure to the coronavirus by 23% to 57% compared with a full flight, according to a simulation study on physical distancing onboard released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.


I would imagine it also cuts the operating margin by at least the same amount. Here in UK there's a row about the cost of compulsory tests before flying, at £120 per test a family of 4 is going to be priced out. The travel business is on its knees already and even if the cost is halved it's a pinch.

Even by my maths, if you cut 1/3 of the seats you cut 1/3 of the income, unless you factor in a fare increase to cover it for the remaining 2/3?
No thanks.

I wasn't personally endorsing just posting the findings ... but to take the devil's advocate role ..

Surely the Airlines like you have said, are on their knees many even near to bankruptcy ..... So the price of an extra empty seat the 1/3 profit loss .. can be made up with higher ticket prices to secure your health . It's not as if the alternative , the staycation, the prices aren't going up ? ...with people so desperate even gazumping other people's holidays, offering more...

Where there is a demand there is a market , and there seems there is demand ....with people desperate for a break ( hopefully to a safe country )

So trade merged with a Customers who desperate to getaway... surely they would pay the extra to secure their health, in so making up the cost to so the airline can make up any profit loss ...

Airlines to meet demand may come to the realization that customer personalization might pay, so it's up tot hem to put forward an option creating a product that meets the needs of their customer ????

As for the cost compulsory tests we must ask why are our tests are so expensive when in Europe they are half the price...
 
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